The worst is yet to come

Though the Atlantic has been without a named storm to date, North Carolina’s hurricane history indicates it is way too soon in the season to breathe a sigh of relief, said Sarah Jamison.

Jamison, a duty forecaster with the National Weather Service in Newport, said the forecast climate prediction center predicts a 50-percent chance of it being a “normal hurricane season.” She feels North Carolina’s hurricane history, with August, September and October being peak hurricane months, is a better indicator and folks should not become complacent.

“Hurricane Alex in 2004 on Aug. 3 was a very active year and it didn’t get started until August,” she said.

From 1851 to 2005, North Carolina has been hit by 47 hurricanes, 12 of which were major.

“Though we see more hurricanes in September than August, if we get a storm in August, it tends to be on the stronger side,” Jamison said. “September is our peak month in North Carolina, but August and October have a lot of activity as well — and chances of having a hurricane in August is twice as much as compared to October.”

Even with El Nino and the fact that the Atlantic basin has not gone this far into hurricane season without a named storm in five years, Jamison said Hurricanes Bonnie and Bob should be reminders to North Carolinians to not be dismissive of what, at first, may appear to be a mild season.

 “In spite of El Nino, Bonnie, Aug. 12 1998, and Bob, Aug. 19, 1991, should be reminders that we can still get strong hurricanes in North Carolina,” she said.  “Both occurred in years with El Nino.”

She said El Nino enhances wind shear over the tropical Atlantic.

“Wind shear and hurricanes don’t like each other,” she said.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has been monitoring wind shear over the tropical Atlantic since hurricane season started June 1.

“There has been a fair amount of wind shear — it is a huge player when we talk about hurricanes,” she said. “With water temperature, sea surface temperature running a bit above normal — sometimes the results of El Nino, in general, it does tend to suppress hurricane activity but it doesn’t completely suppress it. I’m happy to see El Nino, but I still have my hurricane preparedness kit in my car, I don’t take anything for granted.”   

The Onslow County Chapter of the American Red Cross began in earnest in May putting together nurse kits, shelter kits and disaster kits, said Joy Branham, its director.

“That way by August — the time we know we really, really need to be prepared because it’s the beginning of our most active hurricane season — we’re more than ready,” she said.

Branham emphasized the importance of having disaster plans, not only for hurricane season, but year-round.

“To me it’s about so much more than hurricane preparation — to me it’s about disaster preparation,” she said. “It’s not just the threat of hurricanes that should prompt people to get prepared — there is always a threat of any one of various types of disasters can occur, so it’s better to err on the side of being prepared.”

Branham advises reviewing or putting together a disaster plan and kit that includes a contact list and evacuation plan. Have adequate cash on hand, a full tank of gas and a disaster kit for at-home use as well as away-from-home use.

“Even at my house we have disaster kits and backpacks for me and my dog — pets are a valuable part of the family so you have to prepare for them too,” she said. “I have a go kit which is a kit in the closet I can pick up and go with minutes warning.”

“Remember, she added, “all it takes is one bad storm.”

Contact Suzanne Ulrich at 910-219-8454 or sulbrich@freedomenc.com.

Be prepared

During hurricane season, which runs from June 1 to Nov. 30, emergency officials recommend each household have a family emergency plan in place and supply kit assembled.

Other suggestions to keep your family as safe as possible include:  

• Know your evacuation routes and locate your local emergency shelters.
• Don't get caught by surprise. There is not enough time to think of everything you need to do when a hurricane gets close.
• As a hurricane moves closer to your area, begin monitoring the weather reports every hour.
• Listen for hurricane watches and warnings.
• Put fuel in all vehicles and withdraw some cash from the bank. Gas stations and banks may be closed after a hurricane.
• If authorities ask you to evacuate, do so promptly. 
• If you evacuate, be alert to flooded or washed-out roads. Just a few inches of water can float a car. 
• Keep a photo ID that shows your home address. This may become important when asking a police officer or National Guard member for permission to reenter your neighborhood.

For more information or ideas on how to create a disaster kit, visit www.redcross.org and ReadyNC.org.

Source: ReadyNC.gov