Above average hurricane season expected in area

Residents of Eastern North Carolina may want to keep a close eye on the weather for the next few months.

The National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center forecasts an
active hurricane season, which officially began June 1.

“They put out a big range of the number of expected hurricanes this year,” said John Cole, a National Weather Service warning coordination meteorologist in Newport.

The report cites climate signals and conditions that may lead to 14 to 23
named tropical storms and hurricanes between now and Nov. 30. Indicators
reveal an 85 percent chance of an above-normal season.

Of the total number of potential storms, eight to 14 may be hurricanes
with 74 mph or greater winds, and as many as seven hurricanes may be
more severe, with 110 mph or greater winds, Cole said. The most severe
storms usually occur in the heart of the season, from the latter part of August
to October, when weather systems form off the coast of Africa.

“Those can be very large systems because they have a lot of time to
grow over the tropical Atlantic,” Cole said.

Eastern North Carolina, southern Florida and the middle Gulf Coast are
historically vulnerable.

“Those are the three primary areas that have a greater chance of a named
storm coming close by,” Cole said.

Forecasters predict an active season because the climate this year reflects
a La Nina weather pattern. The term refers to a weather phenomenon over
the eastern Pacific Ocean that affects high and low pressure patterns.

“We get a lot more activity because conditions are a lot more conducive to
developing storms,” Cole said. “There are no wind shears to chop off the tops
of the storms.”

It is too early to predict how many storms may form or how they may
affect Eastern North Carolina, Cole said. It’s impossible to tell how pressure
systems may steer the storms until they begin to form. The National
Hurricane Center begins to predict a storm’s direction as many as seven
days before potential landfall. If necessary it will issue a watch 48 hours
in advance and a warning 36 hours in advance, Cole said.

The 2010 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook report is available at nhc.noaa.gov.

Make preparations

Whether it is a potentially active hurricane season or another type of
hazard, the best way for residents to protect themselves is through effective
emergency preparation, said Julia Jarema of the North Carolina Division
of Emergency Management.

And, she said, it makes little difference whether one lives along the coast
or inland.

“It really does not matter if you’re in Craven County, Onslow County or,
for that matter, Madison County in the western part of the state,” Jarema
said. “What you need to do to prepare for hurricane season is the same.”
The first step for individuals and families is to make a plan, she said,
that involves evacuation arrangements, supplies and important personal
information. According to Jarema:

• Be prepared to leave home quickly. Determine in advance where to go, “with Plans B, C and D thought through.”

• Have an out-of-state contact person that everyone should call, especially should the family become separated. The contact person should be “somebody out of harm’s way and out of the impact zone.”
• Have an emergency kit ready, including a flashlight, batteries, a weather radio, extra clothing, food and water for each person to last three to seven days, copies of all important documents in waterproof containers, medications.

• Include any pets in the plan, and each pet should have its own emergency kit to include food, water, immunization records and any special needs.
• Identify shelter locations in advance, if possible.
  
  
• Contact the county emergency management office for instructions and information.
  
  
Check on neighbors, especially senior citizens or people with special needs.

The most importantthing to do is get those things together,” Jaremsaid. “Most of what everyone needs is already in their homes. They justneed to gather it in one place.”

Residents should remain aware of weather conditions, especially if a storm is on the horizon, she said. “Make sure you stay plugged in,” Jarema said. “Watch the weather
reports.”

Also, the more people can do to protect themselves, the smoother emergency services will be able to operate.

“If we do have a really bad hurricane, we know that first responders will
be tied up with critical needs,” Jarema said.

State and county emergency management departments have practiced
plans and are ready to head into action should the need arise, Jarema said. Additionally,
state and local agencies from throughout the state practice regularly.
In early May, emergency personnel from 65 counties completed a two-day
hurricane drill.

“We’re practicing what we preach,” Jarema said.

More information on preparedness is available at the state emergency management division Web site at readync.org.

P. Christine Smith can be reached at 252-635-5666 orpcsmith@freedomenc.com.