Libertarian party impact on 2008 elections

 RALEIGH - Libertarian Party candidates likely won't win the presidency or the governor's race this year. But they could be a player in helping determine who will reside in the White House and the Executive Mansion.

The State Board of Elections Web page shows that out of the 5.8 million registered voters in the state, only 293 are affiliated with the Libertarian Party. The number will likely grow since the Libertarians have only been a recognized party for a few weeks.

They'd been recognized in the past but recently had to go through the cumbersome petition process to regain ballot access. Now that they're on the ballot, there's some sense that their presence could have an effect on a couple of races.

In recent decades, the numbers of independent voters have increased. In North Carolina, independents are registered as "unaffiliated."

Nearly 1.3 million Tar Heels are registered unaffiliated. That compares to 2.6 million who are registered with the Democratic Party. Another 1.9 million are affiliated with the Republican Party.

That means that when it comes to voter registration, there is no majority party in North Carolina.

Libertarians could do better than usual this election for a couple of reasons.

A lot of people are finding that they don't have a home in either the Democratic or Republican parties. The Libertarian Party, in most cases, is their only alternative.

Some people also are finding the principles of libertarianism to their liking.

According to polls, their candidates for president and governor could get more than 5 percent.

Statewide polls indicate that the party's presidential candidate, former Georgia U.S. Rep. Bob Barr, could get up to 6 percent of the vote. Gubernatorial candidate Mike Munger could end up with 5 percent of the vote.

In a close race, a few percentage points could make a big difference in the outcome of an election.

For example, if the Nov. 4 election for governor, Democrat Bev Perdue gets 48 percent, Republican Pat McCrory gets 46 percent and Libertarian Munger gets 6 percent, one could argue that Munger's participation changed the outcome of the election.

To make that declaration, you'd have to assume that practically all of those who voted for Munger would have voted for McCrory had Munger's name not been on the ballot.

Would that be a valid assumption? While some votes likely would have been siphoned away from both major party candidates, I suspect that a good number of people who end up voting for the Libertarian candidate might actually have left their ballot blank in the gubernatorial election.

Of course, we'll never know for sure. 

Barry Smith staffs the Raleigh bureau for The Free Press and other Freedom Communications newspapers in North Carolina. Readers can reach him via e-mail at bsmith@link.freedom.com. You can read his blog at http://intheloop.freedomblogging.com/.